السنة | 2015-05-17 |
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التخصص | ماجستير إدارة المشاريع الهندسية |
العنوان | Management and analysis of traffic accident costs in Sultanate of Oman |
اسم المشرف الرئيسي | باسم كاظم حسن جريو | Basim K. Jrew |
اسم المشرف المشارك | محمد جرادة | Mohammed Abo Jaradeh |
اسم الطالب | إيمان حمد سليمان الحراصية | Eman Hamed Sulaiman Al-Harrasi |
Abstract | According to Royal Oman Police statistics, more than five hundred people die per year in Sultanate of Oman because of traffic accidents. The World Health Organization (WHO) estimated that road traffic fatality rate per 100,000 populations to be equal to 30.4 in Oman in 2010, which put Oman to be one of the highest countries in traffic rate accidents. The main objectives of the study are: to determine the traffic accident costs for the different accident categories, to study the effect of driver behavior on traffic safety and to develop traffic safety and cost models in order to reduce the traffic severity and cost. The study developed statistical regression models, which relate to the total accidents (y_1), fatalities (y_2), injures (y_3) and property damages (y_4) as dependent variables, with possible causes of accidents that are related to driver behavior, as independent variables. The Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) computer software was used for this purpose. Traffic accident data for the period from 2003 to 2013 were collected from traffic government agencies and insurance companies. The traffic accident causes (independent variables) in Oman are classified according to the Royal Oman Police as: speeding, neglect, fatigue, drunk driving, overtaking, weather condition, sudden stopping, safety distance, improper act, vehicle defects and road defects. The traffic accident data were collected from the Royal Oman Police and traffic accident cost data from Insurance Companies. The analysis showed that the main causes of accidents are related to driver behavior. Road defects, vehicle defects and weather condition were not considered as main causes of accidents in Oman. The independent variable speeding appears as the main cause of traffic accident in the total numbers of traffic accident, fatalities, injuries and property damage. The predicted models show strong to moderate correlations between dependent and independent variables and the validation indicates small to moderated errors. A traffic safety management program for driver behaviors in sultanate of Oman was proposed for short term planning (5years) and medium term planning (10 years) for 5% reduction in traffic accidents per year. It can be concluded as there is a relationship between traffic accident costs and driver behaviors in Oman. The driver behaviors: speeding, improper acting, safety distance, neglect and fatigue were found as the main causes of traffic accidents. A traffic safety management program was needed to be applied as a part of government highway safety improvement program in order to control the driver behaviors and to reduce traffic accident numbers and costs. |
الأبحاث المستلة |