تاريخ مجلس الدراسات العليا

2021-02-14

اسم الطالب

ابراهيم حسن ابراهيم سرور

ملخص الرسالة

In construction projects, time is one of many variables that need to be estimated before the project starts, and there are various techniques available for schedulers to use. However, despite the number of tools available, most of them are based on the assumption of complete knowledge of all project parameters. In fact, construction projects face a large number of uncertainties driven by various reasons; as a result, many of the scheduling tools seem to fail in forecasting the actual progress of the project. This study aims to review and analyze the effect of uncertainty on the schedule of construction projects, and it investigates the efficiency of the deterministic and stochastic estimation techniques to determine if special scheduling tools are required in the presence of uncertainty or the traditional methods are sufficient. In addition, this research presented a new heuristic optimization algorithm that was found to be efficient in the presence of uncertainty. Furthermore, it was found that uncertainty impacts construction projects with different degrees; however, it is almost impossible to know beforehand if a specific project is going to be affected, as the project's probability distribution remains ambiguous until all possible cases resulted from uncertainty are considered. Therefore, a project-specific uncertainty analysis is essential to determine the right management action. It was also found that most of the traditional scheduling methods seem to be fooled by the variable distribution of uncertainty across different projects, which eventually leads to its failure.